🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates cover identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."

Appeal for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."