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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Significant Progress, With Critical Obstacles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European countries said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, including through operating inside Ukraine.”

However, they did not proposing these measures would serve as assurances equivalent to Nato’s article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Kremlin Response and Land Issue

The following day, the Kremlin said it had not seen the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. A key demand involves Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no consensus on it yet,” the president remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, recording the comments after his plane departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the United States,” he concluded.